Your Weekly 411: Calgary Townhomes up 19% | Toronto Office Vacancy up 14.3%| The GTA Condo Market is in Freefall

Published 14 days agoΒ β€’Β 2 min read

The Weekly 411:

Today we're covering

🀠 Calgary Townhomes are Heating up

🏒 Toronto Office Vacancy Soars to 14.3%

🏠 Toronto Inventory Rises as Sales Dip

πŸ“‰ The GTA Condo Market is in Freefall

πŸ”₯Edmonton Market Update (It's Hot)

Read Time: 3 minutes

🀠 Calgary Townhomes are Heating up

  • Calgary has the hottest market for townhome price growth in Canada (19% to nearly $475,000).
  • Townhome sales have been strong in Calgary, growing 13% year-over-year.
  • The share of townhome resales in Calgary has grown from 12% to 17% in the past five years.
  • Demand for townhomes is expected to rise if interest rates decrease (although prices would likely rise too).
  • Single-family detached homes are becoming a less dominant market share (down to 44% from 60% in five years).

🏒 Office Toronto Office Vacancy Soars to 14.3%

  • The availability rate (including sublease space) increased by 19.1% in Q1 2024.
  • However, the amount of sublease space specifically declined by 311,000 square feet.
  • Suburban vacancy rates currently sit at 12.8%, lower than downtown's 14.3%.

Why It Matters: Downtown Toronto's office market is struggling to adapt to the changing work landscape. Rising vacancy rates and a shrinking sublease market suggest an oversupply of office space in the core.

🏠 Toronto Inventory Rises as Sales Dip

  • New listings are up 47% year-over-year.
  • Unit sales are down 5% year-over-year.
  • The average home price is down 15% from its peak but still expensive due to rising interest rates.
  • Condo sales are down 6.5%, indicating fewer first-time homebuyers.
  • Detached home sales are down 7% as potential buyers wait for rate cuts.

πŸ“‰ The GTA Condo Market is in Freefall

  • Sales of new condos in the GTHA hit late-1990s lows in Q1 2024, dropping 85% from the 2022 peak and 71% from the 10-year average.
  • New condo construction starts fell 52% from last year
  • Unsold units represent 22.8 months of supply, with Toronto's unsold inventory particularly high (30.6 months).
  • Average new condo prices fell 12% from late 2023, and 17% from last year, now at $1,168 per square foot.

Why It Matters: Although condos are currently undersold, the sharp drop in sales and construction starts points to a potential condo supply shortage in the next 5-10 years. High costs make aligning pricing with market demand difficult, especially for downtown Toronto projects.

πŸ”₯ Edmonton Market Update (It's Hot)

  • The home prices in the Edmonton area reached an all-time high of $431,387 for April 2024, a 5.6% increase from last year
  • Detached home average prices increased 5.9% year-over-year and 2.5% month-over-month
  • Semi-detached home average prices increased 7.4% year-over-year while they declined 0.5% month-over-month
  • Townhouse average prices increased 13% year-over-year and 4.2% month-over-month
  • Apartment average prices increased by 4.4% year-over-year to $200,968. Apartment prices are 3.5% higher than last month.

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